The seizure data is consistent with earlier findings that rifles comprise a much lower percentage of arms trafficked to the Caribbean than to Latin America.[1] Of the 626 firearms seized from Caribbean-bound shipments, just 6 per cent were rifles, as opposed to 35 per cent of firearms in shipments to Latin America (see Table 2).
Most of the rifles bound for Latin America were intended for Mexico, where they are in high demand among drug cartels. In shipments to the rest of Latin America, rifles comprised roughly 27 per cent of seized firearms, which is lower than in shipments to Mexico, but significantly higher than in those to the Caribbean. This is consistent with previous research.[2]
Seizures of rifles from Caribbean-bound shipments have increased in recent years, jumping from two per cent of all seized firearms in 2016–19 to eight per cent in 2020–23. At least in part, the data reflects the intensification of conflict in Haiti,[3] where gang members are seeking the same models of firearms favoured by Mexican drug cartel members, including AK- and AR-pattern rifles[4] and, to a lesser extent, .50 calibre rifles.[5]
AK- and AR-pattern rifles were the most frequently seized models of rifles in shipments to both the Caribbean and Latin America, which is not surprising, given the well-documented demand for these rifles in parts of Latin America. What is surprising, however, is that AK- and AR-pattern rifles were seized at a higher rate in shipments to the Caribbean than in shipments to Latin America, including Mexico (although the small sample size of rifles seized in Caribbean-bound shipments may skew this finding). Seventy-seven per cent of seized rifles[6] bound for the Caribbean were AK- and AR-pattern models, whereas these models comprised just 48 per cent of rifles bound for Mexico and 61 per cent of rifles bound for other Latin American countries (see Table 3). Note that the total quantity of AK- and AR-pattern rifles seized in shipments to Latin America is still significantly higher than the quantity found in shipments to the Caribbean.
Seized much less frequently were .50 calibre rifles. Just one per cent of interdicted rifles bound for Mexico were identified as .50 calibre,[7] and none of the rifles identified by model or calibre in shipments to other Latin American countries was of this calibre. The highly publicized discovery of two .50 calibre rifles in an interdicted Haiti-bound shipment in 2022 is the only such seizure from shipments to the Caribbean (US ICE, 2022).
The data also reveals that high-capacity magazines (that is, magazines holding more than ten rounds) comprise the majority of magazines found in the interdicted shipments. Notably, 93 per cent of magazines found in Caribbean-bound shipments that were identifiable by capacity were high capacity—11 per cent higher than in shipments to Mexico. Shipments to the Caribbean also contained the largest percentage of magazines capable of holding 50 or more cartridges (see Table 4), all of which were found in shipments to the Dominican Republic and Trinidad and Tobago.
The data indicates that the seizure rate of high-capacity magazines is increasing in Caribbean-bound shipments and decreasing in shipments to Latin America. High-capacity magazines destined for the Caribbean increased from 84 per cent of all seized magazines in 2016–19 to 95 per cent in 2020–23. In contrast, high-capacity magazines as a proportion of seized magazines found in shipments to Latin America fell from 94 per cent in 2016–19 to 74 per cent in 2020–23. Nearly all of the largest-capacity magazines (30 or more rounds) in the most recent Caribbean-bound shipments were intended for recipients in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Trinidad and Tobago.
[1] See Fabre et al. (2023, p. 67).
[2] See Fabre et al. (2023, pp. 67–69).
[3] The majority of the seized rifles were bound for Haiti (eight rifles) and the Dominican Republic (13 rifles), which is a transit point for firearms trafficked to Haiti. See UNSC (2024, p. 16).
[4] While AK-pattern (and AR-pattern) rifles sold in the United States are semi-automatic, increasing reports of the trafficking and use of so called ‘conversion devices’ in the Caribbean raise concerns that more of the region’s criminals may seek to transform these rifles into fully automatic weapons.
[5] See UNSC (2023, p. 24) and US DOJ (2024).
[6] Only rifles that were identifiable by pattern or model are included in this figure.
[7] This data is consistent with other data on .50 calibre rifles trafficked to Mexico. According to the US Government Accountability Office, .50 calibre rifles comprised 0.5 per cent of ‘weapons recovered in Mexico and traced to the United States that were recovered within 3 years of initial purchase’ (US GAO, 2021, p. 4).
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