Key findings

This Situation Update is an initial analysis of newly acquired US government data on seizures of outbound firearms shipments at US ports. The findings are preliminary and will be checked against data from other sources in future research.
The data reveals a notable increase in seizures of firearms shipments to both the Caribbean and Latin America from 2016 to 2023. Seizures of shipments to Mexico more than tripled in this period, and seizures of Caribbean-bound shipments increased by 48 per cent.
Rifles (all models) accounted for a much higher percentage of firearms in shipments to Latin America than to the Caribbean.
AK- and AR-pattern rifles comprised a higher percentage of rifles seized in Caribbean-bound shipments than in those bound for Latin America, including Mexico. Similarly, shipments to the Caribbean contained a higher percentage of high-capacity pistol and rifle magazines, including magazines capable of holding 50 or more rounds.
The transport modes of the seized shipments varied significantly between and within the two regions.
The overwhelming majority of seizures took place in southern US border states, with seizures in Florida comprising nearly 90 per cent of shipments to the Caribbean and almost three-quarters of shipments to Latin American countries other than Mexico.