The newly acquired data on firearms seizures at US ports of exit shows that trafficking dynamics vary significantly between the Caribbean and Latin America, and even within these regions. These differences include the number of seizures, the types of seized weapons, the illegal shipments’ modes of transport, and the seizure locations. Some of these differences are consistent with previous studies, while others are more surprising, such as the comparatively high rates of seizures of AK- and AR-pattern rifles and high-capacity magazines in shipments to the Caribbean compared to Latin America. The data also reveals that the dynamics of trafficking to most of Latin America are more similar to trafficking to the Caribbean than to Mexico, for example. These differences underscore the methodological peril of the over-aggregation of regional data on arms trafficking and the need for detailed, disaggregated data on each country in a given region.
The data also highlights several potentially noteworthy trends in firearms trafficking and counter-trafficking efforts that merit additional examination. The data appears to show a dramatic increase in US seizures of illicit outbound firearms shipments to the Caribbean and Latin America, with the largest number of seizures occurring in 2022–23. Whether this increase reflects additional or improved screening of shipments, an increase in trafficking, changes in data collection, or some combination of these possible explanations is unclear.
Also notable is the steep rise in seizure rates of semi-automatic rifles and high-capacity magazines in illegal firearms shipments from the United States to the Caribbean. This increase is consistent with reports of growing demand for these items in the Caribbean, including in Haiti, where some armed groups are better equipped than the security forces.[1] The apparent demand for these weapons, combined with the spread of conversion devices and ghost guns, [2] represents a worrisome trend in the Caribbean.
Corroborating and fully explaining these findings require additional data, including local seizure data from Caribbean governments and trace data from other national and international law enforcement agencies. Finally, newly released data on seizure locations supports previous research regarding the concentration of trafficking in southern US border states; however, the data itself does not indicate whether the lower seizure rates in other US states is due to an absence of trafficking activity or less enforcement capacity. Additional data, including detailed information on the allocation of resources at ports outside of southern border states, would help to answer this question.
[1] See, for example, Forero and de Córdoba (2024).
[2] See Yarina and Florquin (2024).
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