Although overall crime victimization in Ukraine has remained relatively stable following Russia’s full-scale invasion, firearms are increasingly more likely to be used in crime. In late 2023, 11 per cent of surveyed victims of crime said a firearm was used in the crime incidents they experienced during the previous 12 months, up from 6 per cent a year earlier.
The previous intensive phase of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict (2014–15) triggered a short-lived but discernible upswing in violent criminal incidents in Ukraine. This causes concern for a potential greater future increase resulting from the current full-scale war. New analysis shows that Ukrainians are already experiencing increased crime levels—and are arming themselves for security.
'The conflict in Ukraine is raising concerns about arms proliferation risks in the country and broader region, present and future. Our previous research on Ukraine provides insight into how these dynamics played out following the 2014–15 conflict in eastern Ukraine...'