- Fieldwork in Balkh province, Afghanistan, between October and December 2023 reveals the availability of Soviet- and NATO-pattern weapons in district-level markets, even as the Taliban have attempted to exert greater control over civilian-owned firearms.
- Taking inflation and currency fluctuations into account, overall arms prices in Balkh were slightly higher than those documented in markets in other provinces in October and November 2022. Notably, prices for NATO-calibre 5.56 × 45 mm ammunition had doubled, while AK-pattern 7.62 × 39 mm ammunition prices remained stable.
- By the end of December 2023 the Taliban claimed to have issued some 163 weapons permits to businesses, factories, commercial markets, and hospitals in Balkh. While there is currently no official process for civilians to hold or register their weapons without a business licence, in practice individuals with connections to the Taliban may receive informal permission to own weapons.
- A large number of weapons that former major power brokers and political elites had previously stockpiled remain hidden. The business interests of some major political elites who have not acted against the Taliban remain intact, while those of other elites have been seized.
- According to Taliban-released figures, US-manufactured weapons reportedly account for less than 10 per cent of the weapons seized in Balkh, the majority being AK-pattern assault rifles and pistols, which have been widely in circulation in Afghanistan for decades.
- Researchers found no evidence of arms smuggling to Uzbekistan, but Central Asian states, particularly Tajikistan, remain concerned about the risks associated with weapons trafficking, terrorist group activity, and instability under Taliban rule in northern Afghanistan.
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