Conclusion

Researchers deployed to Balkh note that it is now easier to access weapons markets than it was previously under the Western-supported government, particularly in Pashtun-dominated districts where the Taliban have enjoyed longstanding support. While the Taliban may favour Pashtun communities, they have been careful not to upset Tajik communities in Balkh and have left the business interests of some former power brokers and Tajik political elites intact. House-to-house searches are likely to continue, but have not intensified in the absence of any significant armed group activity in Balkh to date. The absence of armed resistance and terrorist-designated group activity currently also reduces the risks associated with cross-border weapons trafficking.

Afghanistan’s northern border areas may be less prone to conflict and instability, but Central Asian states may still require support to ensure adequate border-protection systems are in place should conflict dynamics change. Afghanistan’s eastern border with Pakistan currently remains most at risk of weapons trafficking and cross-border terrorist group activity, given the threats posed by ISKP and TTP. Afghanistan’s border with Iran, and particularly Iran’s Balochistan region with access to the Makran coast, has so far not been studied and could potentially be the focus of future work to better understand regional security and trafficking dynamics, what risks are present, and what risks are not.