The continued ethnicization of the larger conflict in Sudan will see the onset of conflict at the community level in South Kordofan, destroying fragile social fabric and entrenching conflict, making it far harder to resolve. The Nuba in South Kordofan have long sought greater autonomy from an oppressive, menacing Khartoum; the significant deterioration of intercommunal and interracial relations as a result of the war fuel hopes for greater independence and the prospective break-up of the Sudanese state.
SPLA-N offensives against SAF risk, in the medium term, opening a new front in the conflict. The offensive also damages SAF’s ability to fight the increasingly emboldened RSF in other parts of the country, contributing to the national military balance of power between the two militaries. While SAF is currently simply too occupied with the existential fight against the RSF, any easing of this intra-military conflict may allow whichever side is in the ascendancy to turn towards South Kordofan and the SPLA-N. Crucially because of its earning power and the high cost of the ongoing conflict, gold is highly likely to be the subject of battles between armies and armed groups. South Kordofan has perhaps the highest concentrations of gold deposits in the country.
Increases in community-level or broader conflict between militaries in South Kordofan will impact South Sudan’s stability as displaced persons are pushed southward and across the border. With almost 370,000 individuals having crossed from Sudan into South Sudan by mid-November 2023 (82.89 per cent of whom were classified as South Sudanese returnees), South Sudanese communities along the border with Sudan have already faced serious new pressures on their already shaky food and physical security.52 Cut off from all outside assistance, the South Kordofan population, previously reliant in large part on South Sudan for key foodstuffs and supplies, is already experiencing its own severe humanitarian pressures and the hunger season, beginning in October, and beyond may see the onset of an even more acute emergency humanitarian context in the state.
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