Conclusion

After the violence of the first half of 2023, Warrap state is now relatively peaceful and enjoying the relative abundance of the harvest. Such tranquillity, however, is not likely to endure. Zero-sum competitions for territory and economic power between the Twic and the Ngok Dinka have no clear resolution. In Greater Tonj, partisan government interventions and disarmament campaigns focused on particular communities have resulted in high levels of displacement and egregious violence over the past three years. In theory, a more neutral state government that tried to rise above the communities that it represents would guarantee more peace and stability in Warrap. Since 2013, however, the structure of the South Sudanese state has reinforced ethnic and sectional divisions as a form of rule, setting Warrap’s communities against one another, as politicians pursue power in the capital by fomenting unrest in the peripheries of the country. In this context, greater state presence has reliably led to more violence. With elections scheduled for December 2024, there will be a concomitant press for political positions in Warrap, and with that will come increased tension and, very likely, further violence.