Introduction

The Small Arms Survey is undertaking several waves of public opinion surveys to gauge the Ukrainian population’s perceptions of the proliferation of firearms in the country and its impact on security. The resulting understanding of the scope and mechanisms of small arms proliferation among civilians aims to contribute to the long-term objectives of promoting peace and security in Ukraine and more broadly in Europe. Undertaking rigorous quantitative research in a conflict-affected region during a period of active conflict presents a unique opportunity to systematically observe firearms proliferation and public perceptions of the ownership and use of firearms in areas behind the front line.

This paper is the second of the Survey’s Situation Update series on firearms possession and proliferation in Ukraine. It builds on the work undertaken by various survey organizations in Ukraine carried out as far back as 2011, including the data and analysis published in Schroeder et al. (2019), Hideg and Watson (2023), and Hideg (2023). A new survey administered in November–December 2023 (hereafter ‘December 2023’) for the Small Arms Survey forms the basis for this new Situation Update (see ‘Methodology’, below). At least two more waves of surveying are scheduled for summer 2024 and early 2025 in order to monitor developments over time.

This Situation Update focuses on civilian possession of firearms and is divided into two main sections. The first provides contextual background on perceptions of insecurity, the role of weapons, and the specific situation of combatants and veterans. The second section examines civilian firearms possession, including public perceptions of these weapons, civilians’ access to them, and public awareness and use of the new Unified Register of Weapons.