Since the signing of the R-ARCSS in 2018, the government has systematically tried to weaken the SPLM/A-IO in Greater Equatoria. Major commanders—such as Moses Lokujo and James Nando—have defected and then been deployed against opposition forces.[1] The stalled security sector reform process required by the R-ARCSS has also taken its toll on what was once the most organized SPLA-IO force in the Equatorias, with soldiers abandoning cantonment sites and returning to farming, exasperated by the unfulfilled promises of the agreement.
Nevertheless, the SPLA-IO maintains some military strength in Eastern Equatoria. Of the three divisions that Justin Akado created following the collapse of the ARCSS in 2016, the Tafeng Division, created for the central counties of the state, and largely for Lotuko and Lango people, remains a powerful force, and is based in Torit county under the command of Patrick Ohiti Oswaldo, a Lotuko from Ifwotu payam.
The SPLM-IO also has strong political support in Eastern Equatoria. Nathaniel Oyet, the deputy speaker of the National Legislative Assembly, is esteemed by his Acholi community, whose chairperson, Otim David, was also a long-standing member of the SPLM-IO. Martin Abucha, the SPLM-IO national minister of mining, is a Madi from Magwi. The SPLM-IO has strong support in both communities, despite Madi backing for the community’s elite, which has largely supported Lobong. The Lotuko are also opposed to Lobong. The SPLM-IO, however, has struggled to turn this support into political power. Lobong has successfully prevented the opposition from building up a sustainable revenue base in the state. The SPLM-IO deputy governor, Mary Alphonse Lodira, while popular in her home county of Budi, spent much of her life in the diaspora, and lacks the local political capital necessary to constitute a real opposition to Lobong. With elections delayed for at least another two years, the SPLM/A-IO faces the prospect of further defections as Lobong slowly strengthens his grip over the elite and the economy of Eastern Equatoria.
Just as for the SPLM/A-IO, the period since 2018 has seen the NAS steadily weakened in Eastern Equatoria. Its forces now have little presence in the state outside of the Ikotos mountain of Imotong, although some forces are still in Chukudum, near Lotukei, and at Ayii Kit along the Juba–Nimule road. In a bid for relevance, in March 2024, Cirillo appointed Kamilo Otwari, a Lotuko from Eastern Equatoria, as his chief of staff. Subsequent efforts at recruitment in the state have only been minimally successful, and the recruits have all crossed into the remaining NAS heartlands in Central Equatoria. The SSPDF has intermittently moved against the NAS in Eastern Equatoria, disrupting a mobilization in May 2024 in Obbo payam, Magwi county. It has also continued to harass populations putatively loyal to the NAS: in August 2024, the SSPDF moved into Ikotos county and rounded up young men, until the community mobilized and pushed out the government forces.
[1] In Eastern Equatoria, Okot David Awai, the commander of the SPLA-IO 9th Brigade in Magwi county, defected in 2017, first to Taban Deng Gai’s faction and then to the SSPDF.
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