Conclusion

Although defections and political isolation have weakened both the SPLM/A-IO and NAS, dissent against Lobong’s regime continues. Following the further extension of already delayed elections to 2026, the political structure created by the R-ARCSS has fallen into almost complete illegitimacy. In the absence of a meaningful formal political opposition to Lobong’s and Kiir’s regimes, communities themselves are acting to resist the predatory encroachments of the centralized state. In Magwi county local youth are organizing against the UPDF, while Lobong’s own Toposa community has facilitated Murle raids on the governor’s herds. In a context in which politics is increasingly ethnicized, this process of resistance is likely to be chaotic, but in Eastern Equatoria today it represents the sole means of protest against Lobong’s almost complete domination of the state.

[1] In Eastern Equatoria, Okot David Awai, the commander of the SPLA-IO 9th Brigade in Magwi county, defected in 2017, first to Taban Deng Gai’s faction and then to the SSPDF.