Context

Western Equatoria has long had an ambiguous relationship with the SPLM/A. In 2005, after the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that brought an end to Sudan’s second civil war (1983–2005), the SPLM appointed Patrick Zamoi as state governor. Zamoi was an SPLA commander and an influential member of the Avongara elite, the royal clan of the Azande, which is the largest minority in Western Equatoria.^[1] He proved to be extremely unpopular, however, and was replaced after six months, albeit by another Zande politician. The Avongara struggle to control Western Equatoria constitutes one of the main fault lines of politics in the state.

Following the signing of the CPA, the ‘Arrow Boys’ emerged, which largely comprised Azande community self-defence groups formed in response to Lord’s Resistance Army raids.^[2] Zamoi initially supported these groups, including forces under Futuyo’s command, but the SPLM, which feared losing control of the state, viewed them with suspicion. From 2005 to 2011 there was widespread discontent with the national government among the people of Western Equatoria, who felt marginalized by the Bahr el Ghazal Dinka, whom they believed dominated state institutions.^[3] This discontent propelled Joseph Bakosoro’s 2010 gubernatorial victory, which he won as an independent candidate, after he was blocked from the SPLM nomination by the then-incumbent governor, Jemma Nunu. Like Zamoi, Jemma Nunu is part of the Avongara, while Bakosoro is not from the Azande royal clan, and was considered a threat.

During the first phase of South Sudan’s civil war (2013–15), prior to the signing of the Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (ARCSS), Bakosoro backed the Arrow Boys, while flirting with joining the opposition. The Avongara elite pushed South Sudan’s president, Salva Kiir, to remove him. After the signing of the ARCSS, Bakosoro was finally removed and Western Equatoria was plunged into conflict.

Among other commanders, both Futuyo and Wesley Welebe, a Moro from the east of the state, joined the SPLM/A-IO, while Bakosoro was imprisoned for eight months.^[4] With the signing of the 2018 Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan, and faced with a loss of SPLM-IO power elsewhere in the Equatorias, the opposition leader, Riek Machar, chose Futuyo, a populist figure, to be the governor of Western Equatoria. This horrified the Avongara elite, who conspired to remove him. While Futuyo’s mother is a Zande (although not part of the Avongara), his father is a Balanda from Western Bahr el Ghazal state. Zamoi and Jemma Nunu successfully cast Futuyo as an outsider, which increased ethnic tensions in Western Equatoria, setting the Azande against the Balanda.

After one of Futuyo’s principal commanders, James Nando Mark, defected to the South Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF) in March 2020, tension turned into violence in Tambura county, the precolonial seat of the Azande Tambura Kingdom. A Balanda force under the command of Angelo Davido and backed by Futuyo clashed with Nando’s Azande forces from June to September 2021, leaving hundreds dead and tens of thousands displaced (UNMISS and OHCHR, 2022). This worried Juba, which stepped in, arresting Nando. The clashes failed to remove Futuyo from the governorship, but transformed the political landscape of Western Equatoria. Political divisions are now absolutely ethnicized, and the potential for serious violence is extremely high.

^[1] The Azande are referred to as Azande in the plural and Zande in the singular; they speak Pazande.

^[2] See Small Arms Survey (2016).

^[3] For background on Equatorian suspicions of the SPLM, see Boswell (2017; 2021).

^[4] Futuyo was one of several Arrow Boy commanders to join the SPLM-IO; Welebe’s ‘Nyarango Boys’, formed in the east of the state to deal with the threat from Dinka pastoralists, was a distinct entity, but also received funding and support from Bakosoro.