After the 2021 Tambura violence, the SPLM/A-IO—at least in the west of the state—became so associated with the Balanda that in Yambio, Azande feel they cannot espouse any support for Futuyo without being considered traitors.[12] Both sides have made autochthonous claims to Western Equatoria: Azande politicians assert that the Balanda are foreigners; Futuyo claims that the Azande are actually from Mali. Neither of these claims is about the historical record—they are both contemporary means of asserting legitimacy in Western Equatoria.
While Zamoi and Jemma Nunu managed to sow ethnic divisions in Western Equatoria, they have not necessarily profited from their own strategy. The Azande of Yambio resent the dominance of the Avongara elite from Tambura county and are more open to making deals with other ethnic groups. Part of Futuyo’s strategy is precisely to appeal to Azande who are unhappy with Jemma Nunu, who is partly blamed for the 2021 violence in Tambura, and with Zamoi, whose unpopularity stems from the arrest of the Yambio county paramount chief, Atoroba Peni Rikito (now the Azande king), which occurred during Zamoi’s time as governor.
Joseph Bakosoro, Jemma Nunu’s erstwhile Zande political rival, retains a strong following. Bakosoro has always had national ambitions—which was one of the reasons he clashed with Riek Machar and never joined the SPLM-IO—and used his National Movement for Change party as a vehicle to first join the South Sudan Opposition Alliance and then take up a ministerial position in March 2020. In August 2021, however, he joined the SPLM, while retaining his ministerial position. Kiir’s absorption of a problematic rival into the SPLM was a cunning move: Bakosoro joined the party with the expectation of becoming the speaker of the TNLA (Jemma Nunu’s position), and—perhaps—being given the vice-presidential ticket for the forthcoming elections. He now finds himself becalmed. He is in a ministry without power and is unlikely to receive the vice-presidential nomination, which is expected go to a Nuer candidate.
Despite Bakosoro’s neutralization, Avongara weakness at the state level may yet prove problematic for Kiir. When Futuyo was appointed governor in 2020, the assumption was that the deputy governorship would go to someone from the east of the state, thanks to a long-standing agreement about the geographical balance of power in Western Equatoria. Africano Mande, a popular Baka politician from Maridi county, was considered the favourite for the position. With Futuyo appointed as the governor, however, the Avongara feared marginalization, and pressured Kiir to appoint Kennedy Gaaniko, who is Jemma Nunu’s protégé, but lacks popularity in Western Equatoria.[13] He will struggle in an open gubernatorial election. Avongara unpopularity poses a problem for Kiir: he wants to win Western Equatoria in the 2024 elections, but cannot choose a non-Avongara candidate, given their centrality to
his political coalition in the Equatorias.
If elections do occur in Western Equatoria, they will almost certainly be marred by violence. In preparation, the Avongara elite have recruited in Tambura and Ezo, where the rump of James Nando Mark’s forces are based, even if the notoriously impetuous commander remains in Juba. In addition, the SSPDF battalion that was supposed to deploy on a peacekeeping mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) never arrived, and instead installed itself on the DRC–South Sudan border, effectively acting as a back-up force in case tensions between the Avongara and Futuyo become violent.
[12] The ethnic politics of opposition in the east of the state, where substantial numbers of the Baka and Moro, among others, are loyal to the SPLM-IO, is considerably more complicated.
[13] Gaaniko has previously competed for national positions—including the chairmanship of the National Youth Union—and worked in Juba; he does not have a strong local base, although he seems to be intent on trying to become the SPLM gubernatorial candidate in Western Equatoria.
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