New HSBA report on Sudan’s ‘forgotten front’: Blue Nile dynamics remain volatile despite cessation of hostilities
The conflict between the Government of Sudan and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army-North (SPLM/A-N) in Sudan’s Blue Nile state erupted in September 2011—extending from ongoing combat in South Kordofan, in Jibal El Nouba state. Fighting continued until mid-2016 when both parties declared unilateral cessations of hostilities.
Although the Blue Nile conflict has been deemed ‘inactive’ since 2016, tensions in the area continue as a result of the SPLM/A-N split into two factions and the state’s proximity to South Sudan. A new report from the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) project examines the developments in Blue Nile from 2015 onwards.
Spilling Over: Conflict Dynamics in and around Sudan’s Blue Nile State, 2015–19 takes its basis in previous HSBA studies on the topic from 2011 to 2015, and provides an analysis of the military and political dynamics that followed. It assesses the evolution of the SPLM/A-N’s war with the Government of Sudan (GoS); the split within the SPLM/A-N itself; the dire humanitarian situation; as well as the failed—more than 15 since 2011—peace talks.