Those that Tong Akeen cannot buy off with cash or positions are arrested or made to disappear. Since Malong’s dismissal in 2017, Kiir’s regime and Tong Akeen have been working to remove the rebel general’s supporters, along with other influential members of the opposition, from positions of influence in the state. In September and October 2022, more than 40 people were arrested in a joint operation by the National Security Services (NSS) and SSPDF Military Intelligence. Many were taken to Juba, where those detained without charge in Blue House, the famed national security detention centre (HRW, 2020), included Samuel Garang Dut, a civil society activist, and Deng Makol, the chairperson of the state’s trade union association.
The state government’s campaign to eliminate opponents has continued into 2024. On 31 January, the SPLM youth league leader for Aweil North county, Peter Loc Yak, disappeared on his way from Aweil to Gok Machar.[1] Before his disappearance, Loc had angered Joseph Akok (otherwise known as Akok Manyiel), Tong Akeen’s powerful security adviser, by backing a rival politician from their home payam. On 12 February, the secretary-general of the state’s youth union, Wilson Unam Bol, was arrested on charges of embezzlement (Aweil News Agency, 2024). It is more likely, however, that Bol was arrested because of his links to Tito Awen, the union’s former chairperson, who was removed by Tong Akeen in 2023.
One of Tong Akeen’s goals is to prevent any viable opposition blocs from emerging in the state. In this he has been successful. Other than the SPLM, no party has a meaningful support base within Northern Bahr el Ghazal. Those who joined the SPLM-IO did so opportunistically, in order to take advantage of the positions offered by the terms of the R-ARCSS. The SSOA lacks any grassroot structures in Northern Bahr el Ghazal, and the SSPM is effectively an elite. alliance forged between two families: that of Abdel Bagi (Aweil East county), including his brother Nuradin Garang (the SSPDF head of procurement), and that of Riiny Lual (Aweil West county). Lual and Abdel Bagi père both served together in Khartoum. Their children run the SSPM: Mabior Riiny Lual is currently the secretary-general of the movement, and Costello Garang, his brother, is its chair. Rather than attempt to build a viable grassroots organization, the SSPM has attempted to control the SPLM from the outside.
The most serious threat to Tong Akeen’s control of the state may emerge from Abdel Bagi. If elections do occur, Kiir will only have one vice-presidential. nomination, which will mean finding space for the five current vice-presidents within the South Sudanese political system. In Juba, one mooted possibility is that Abdel Bagi could become the governor of Northern Bahr el Ghazal. Within the state, this would be a deeply unpopular choice: Abdel Bagi has never been forgiven for his militia forces’ vicious assaults on Northern Bahr el Ghazal during the second civil war. His nomination, if it occurred, would continue a trend whereby governors with links to Sudan’s security establishment are imposed on the border states, and local legitimacy is sacrificed to regional political dynamics. Tensions have already emerged between Tong Akeen and his patron. In January 2024, Tong Akeen fired Mangar Mou Anyar, the SPLM chairperson for Aweil East county, amid claims he supported the SSOA. The move suggests a growing rift between the two men.
[1] Interviews with informants in Northern Bahr el Ghazal, February–March 2024.
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