Context

The Small Arms Survey is undertaking several waves of public opinion surveys to gauge the perceptions of the Ukrainian population regarding the proliferation of arms in the country and its impact on security. This understanding of the scope and mechanisms of civilian small arms and light weapons proliferation will significantly contribute to the long-term objectives of promoting peace and security both in Ukraine and across Europe. Engaging in rigorous quantitative research in a conflict-affected region during a period of active conflict presents a unique window to systematically observe firearms proliferation and public perceptions of these weapons far from the front lines.

This paper builds on the work of various survey organizations in Ukraine from as far back as 2011 (see ‘Methodology’). The Small Arms Survey specifically commissioned much of this work. The Survey then analysed the data collected and published the results in Schroeder et al. (2019) and Hideg and Watson (2023). The present paper brings this analysis up to date, and marks the beginning of the Survey’s Situation Update series on arms proliferation in Ukraine. The project plans to conduct three more survey waves in 2023 and 2024, making it possible to monitor developments over time.