New HSBA Briefing Paper on the politics of violence in South Sudan

South Sudan is once again on the brink of war. The regime of South Sudanese President Salva Kiir is bombing civilians and detaining the opposition, while foreign embassies close and evacuate staff. The Ugandan army has installed itself in Juba, the country’s capital, to assist Kiir’s regime’s suppression of the opposition. Both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese army are also now participating in the conflict inside South Sudan. While Kiir has appointed a successor, Benjamin Bol Mel, he may not have the political capital to take over. The current conflict may be a prelude for a much more destructive civil war.

On The Brink: The Politics of Violence in South Sudan—a new Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) project—examines what led South Sudan to delay elections scheduled for December 2024 and considers the likely ensuing civil war. It focuses on the place of the Tumaini Peace Initiative in South Sudan’s political compact, the effects of the war in Sudan on politics in the country, Kiir’s contested succession, and the violence scarring the region.

Read: On The Brink: The Politics of Violence in South Sudan

For more, check out:

• Pay Day Loans and Backroom Empires: South Sudan’s Political Economy since (October 2023)—a Briefing Paper on the predatory nature of the political economy in South Sudan
• The Republic of Kadamol: A Portrait of the Rapid Support Forces at War (January 2025)—a Briefing Paper that gives a synthetic analysis of the RSF since the war began
• Living with Lobong: Power, Gold, and the UPDF in Eastern Equatoria (November 2024)—a Situation Update that explores Lobong’s grasp on the state
• Port Sudan: The Political Economy of a Potential Administrative Capital (April 2024)—a Situation Update that explores the fragile political landscape in and surrounding the city
• Nuba Hopes and Fears: Fuelling SPLA-North Mobilization in South Kordofan (March 2024)—a Situation Update that examines the clashes between the three main political stakeholders in South Kordofan, Sudan
• The Human Security Baseline Assessment (HSBA) project page
• South Sudan outputs in our Resource Library

Other news from the Survey:

• New Briefing Paper on NATO-pattern weapons for sale in arms markets in Afghanistan and Pakistan
• New update to the unplanned explosions at munitions sites database
• New HSBA Briefing Paper on the Rapid Support Forces in Sudan
• New Survey how-to guides on meaningful participation and gender-responsive action plans
• New Situation Update on civilian firearm possession in Ukraine